Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.265314 0.299754 0.337093 0.380602 0.429938 0.484179 0.548382
2025-10-26 0.214454 0.260183 0.313481 0.380276 0.461878 0.558500 0.681851
2025-11-02 0.168476 0.217736 0.278966 0.360855 0.467819 0.603224 0.788345
2025-11-09 0.132899 0.181933 0.246562 0.338306 0.465750 0.637351 0.887359
2025-11-16 0.109792 0.158512 0.226315 0.328046 0.477717 0.691239 1.021499
2025-11-23 0.091617 0.138926 0.208154 0.317505 0.487220 0.742768 1.160846
2025-11-30 0.081047 0.128707 0.201829 0.323088 0.521080 0.834927 1.376677
2025-12-07 0.068574 0.113593 0.185718 0.310790 0.524774 0.880456 1.525729
2025-12-14 0.059595 0.102715 0.174671 0.304828 0.537584 0.942305 1.712183
2025-12-21 0.052173 0.093329 0.164687 0.298989 0.549398 1.003784 1.907920
2025-12-28 0.047870 0.088748 0.162281 0.306089 0.585277 1.113283 2.210958
2026-01-04 0.042858 0.082141 0.155270 0.303502 0.602370 1.189963 2.462923
2026-01-11 0.038895 0.077116 0.150803 0.305743 0.630497 1.294984 2.797076
2026-01-18 0.035978 0.073731 0.149045 0.313188 0.670583 1.431128 3.224018
2026-01-25 0.031638 0.066842 0.139326 0.302638 0.671008 1.484053 3.477203
2026-02-01 0.027485 0.059766 0.128245 0.287472 0.658890 1.507663 3.667635
2026-02-08 0.024634 0.055106 0.121675 0.281352 0.666388 1.577114 3.982419
2026-02-15 0.022060 0.050705 0.115070 0.274138 0.670151 1.638459 4.289289
2026-02-22 0.020708 0.048917 0.114131 0.280241 0.707393 1.787667 4.855123
2026-03-01 0.018495 0.044791 0.107177 0.270525 0.703198 1.831777 5.145827
2026-03-08 0.016845 0.041804 0.102551 0.265994 0.711771 1.910655 5.550468
2026-03-15 0.015371 0.039059 0.098147 0.261369 0.719350 1.988201 5.967459
2026-03-22 0.014612 0.038029 0.097926 0.267875 0.758728 2.160561 6.705391